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ARC: Coweta population to swell to quarter-million by 2040, Fayette to 168,500

A new population forecast for the 20-county metro Atlanta area prepared by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC) shows Coweta County’s 2040 population at nearly a quarter-million people, more than double the estimated 2010 population. Meantime, the population in the 20-county Atlanta area is expected to increase to 8.26 million during the same period, an increase of 57.1 percent over 2010.

ARC spokesperson Jim Jaquish in the Feb. 23 Regional Snapshot report noted that the Atlanta region has been one of the fastest-growing metro areas in the United States. And according to ARC’s new forecast that growth will only continue to occur. Referencing the report, Jaquish said the 20-county area, with a 2010 estimated population of 5,254,400, is expected to grow to 8,256,400 by 2040. That figure represents a population increase of 57.1 percent over current numbers.

Pertaining to Coweta County, the ARC forecast projects that the 2010 estimated population of 120,100 will increase by 107.2 percent to reach 248,500 by 2040. By way of comparison, Coweta’s population in 1980 was 39,268.

But what about Coweta’s neighbors? Fayette County, with a 2010 estimated population of 106,000 is forecast to see a 59 percent increase by 2040 with a population of 168,500. Carroll County is forecast to grow by 72.3 percent, going from a 2010 estimated population of 111,700 to 192,500 in 2040. And Fulton County is forecast to go from a 2010 estimated population of 965,600 to 1,338,900 in 2040, a 38.7 percent increase.

Jaquish said the continued growth will push the populations of two counties, Fulton and Gwinnett, past the one million mark. Today, Fulton, Gwinnett, DeKalb and Cobb counties account for 60 percent of the region’s population. While they will still hold the majority of the residents in 2040, their total share will drop to roughly 52 percent. Growth in some of the smaller counties accounts for that shift. In fact, five counties — Coweta, Forsyth, Henry, Newton and Paulding — will see their populations double by 2040, Jaquish said.

“Even in these tough economic times, the Atlanta region remains a place where people want to live and work,” said ARC Director Chick Krautler. “Our forecasts indicate continued strong population and employment growth for the next 30 years, and that’s good news for every city and county in the metro area.”

As with population, Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb and DeKalb counties dominate the region’s employment today and will continue to do so. But the percentage of jobs in those counties will drop from 72 percent to 66 percent. Cherokee County will experience the highest percentage of job growth (166 percent), followed by Henry (141 percent), Barrow (133 percent) and Forsyth (124 percent) counties.

“Metro Atlanta, as one of the best-educated places in the U.S., is well prepared to meet the opportunities of the new globalized economy and to continue its strong growth,” said Mike Alexander, ARC’s Research Chief. “Our predecessors had the vision to invest in the future, creating opportunities for higher education that attract and keep entrepreneurs here and building what is now the world’s busiest airport, providing access to the rest of the world. These economic engines benefit the region and all of Georgia, and will be fundamental to our economic success.”

Metro Atlanta, including Coweta County, has for decades been the recipient of unprecedented population growth as the Northeast and Midwest states barely maintained long-held population levels. And all the while the Sunbelt states continued their population expansion.

The initial 2010 census figures released in January showed Georgia as America’s ninth most populous state with 9,687,653 residents. that figure compares to the 8,186,453 residents in 2000. Michigan, at number eight in 2010 had a population of 9,883,640.

The population forecasts will form the basis for ARC’s new 30-year regional plan, PLAN 2040, which will be adopted by the ARC Board of Directors in the summer of 2011. PLAN 2040 is being developed on a platform of economic, environmental and social sustainability for the entire Atlanta region.

For more details about ARC’s small area population and employment forecasts, including county-specific information visit



self-fullfilling prophecy, isn't this? I mean, if they forecast slow or no growth, they would not have a reason to exist now would they? A crock made up of special interests and developers and politicians who answer to them. Like who can really see the future for 30 years from now. 30 years ago did ARC predict the last 3 years of this economy? What a joke.

Robert W. Morgan's picture

30 years goes by rather quickly and if we and our neighbors are going to increase by 50% in that time, traffic will be a nightmare without new roads. Think about 30 years ago with a 2-lane 74 winding thru Tyrone, ditto for 54 - Newnan to Fayetteville. This is good forward thinking by our leadership and ARC. Can't imagine how we would function without them.

Actually I'm just kidding around. That level of growth is nonsense and it is based upon the hyper-inflated rates of the boom times in Fayette and Atlanta. It will take 10 of those 30 years just to fill the vacant houses in Fayette and even longer to get those high-rise condos in Atlanta occupied - probably by renters. Birth rates are down, schools are being closed, but people are living longer, so there may be some minor growth on paper, The only thing that would change this is some aggressive business recruitment with serious tax incentives, professional staff and a supportive government. Supportive and coordinated government. Anyone wanna bet on that?

Live free or die!

NUK_1's picture

I like how people heavily dislike ARC recommendations at times, and then others, like when Steve Brown is touting how great the EFB will be, suddenly the ARC are GENIUSES and Steve likes them a lot!

BHH's picture

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.


suggarfoot's picture

I totaly agree with you

I can't imagine it with double the population.

Don't have much imagination, do you?

You reckon they won't build more roads and put in public transportation some day?

In my lifetime we have gone to 315,000,000 citizens from 120,000,000!
The next stretch of years will be exponential to that!

OK, Spy, exponential means that 300 mil will generate more population much quicker than 120 mil did!

Or, I'll tell you what, we could do like China---drown all female babies and allow only one male baby per family, except for special permissions!

ginga1414's picture

In the process of researching why Fayette County built Rivers Elementary, we discovered that the ARC had predicted the need for and recommended building Rivers. Uh Oh! Wrong!

The Fayette Board of Education was told a few weeks ago to expect zero growth for the next 5 years.

The question that repeatedly baffles a lot of people is, "Why do Fayette Officials continually take lemming leaps into the sea just because the ARC says they should?"

Don't these people know how to think for themselves?

Maybe they find it easier to just do what they are told instead of actually educating themselves.

More than likely, there is a different scenario.

Statistics can be manipulated to fit any agenda! For example: The ARC and MARTA desperately want to establish bus and rail lines in Fayette County. ARC Officials just feed that information to their consultants. The consultants type in the appropriate facts and figures into their trusty computers. The computers spit out the statistics. The ARC's consultants feed those statistics to Ken Steele, Jack Smith, and now Herb Frady. The next thing Fayette citizens know they are in desperate need of MARTA.

Another example: Jack Smith and Ken Steele realize (with help from their developer supporters) that there is a whole lot of undeveloped land West of Fayetteville. They take that information back to their buddies at the ARC. Those folks feed the information to the consultants. The consultants feed the information to the computers. The computers spit out the statistics that say build the West Bypass and Rivers Elementary School. When Smith starts getting flack from the public about the need for the WFB, Smith says, "It is a way of controlling development." Duh! He might as well have said, "We want the development here so this is why we are building the road. When we build the road and all those developers start building houses, we are going to need more schools." That still didn't fly with the public so Ken Steel popped up and said that the West Bypass is for future development.

hutch866's picture

[quote=ginga1414]In the process of researching why Fayette County built Rivers Elementary, we discovered that the ARC had predicted the need for and recommended building Rivers. Uh Oh! Wrong!

The Fayette Board of Education was told a few weeks ago to expect zero growth for the next 5 years.

The question that repeatedly baffles a lot of people is, "Why do Fayette Officials continually take lemming leaps into the sea just because the ARC says they should?"

Don't these people know how to think for themselves?

Maybe they find it easier to just do what they are told instead of actually educating themselves.[/quote]

Now Steve Brown wants to build his own bypass to nowhere, and cites an ARC study as one of the reasons, and the WFB people are all ok with that, and y'all still worship at the feet of Steve Brown, so please show me how Steve is any different from the other three.

I yam what I yam

mudcat's picture

See birdman's "The trouble with Brown is" and you'll see what I mean.

hutch866's picture

I'm just waiting for one of his followers to justify the east bypass, since it seems that it will be as useless as the west, and yet Steve is all for it. In his last response to me, his major point was the fact that while he uses his real name, I use an alias. He wants to use this forum for his own gain, but then pick at the rules. I gave him my name on here, but of course, as usual, he never replied. Seems that if you don't agree with him, you don't rate a response. Of course, maybe he was out of town for a couple months like he told me the Sunday before the election.

I yam what I yam

mudcat's picture

I've looked at those maps and can't figure out how either east or west bypasses benefit anyone or what they actually bypass. Can't see it. Brown is for the east just like birdman said, simply because the old 3 on county commission are for the one on the west. He's taken the contrary position for 2 reasons: 1. because he's Brown and 2. because he knows that next election is going to produce 2 new people who will run as anti-incumbent and chances are he can "charm" (meaning fool) at least one of them into supporting him for commission chair.

In other words, it has nothing to do with either bypass, it is all about him. Just wait an see what his next issue is and measure it against this template.

Since in all likelihood both East and West Bypasses will be built in spite of all this stupidity, it could be that Commissioner Brown knows this, and wants East first since there obviously seems to be some kind of chicanery going on with the West! Gives him time to find it!

Man is a genius.

mudcat's picture

Caped crusader coming in to discover that Jack Smith's elderly aunt owns 20 acres that will become commercial fronting the bypass - or something like that. Right?

MajorMike's picture

Actually the next election will produce THREE new people when "Sleepy", "Dopey", and "Elmer Fudd" go bye-bye. Then maybe we can get someone that will work with the two commissioners that the people of Fayette County just elected to put a halt to the BS.

Sorry if that steps on your rice bowl.

birdman's picture

reign of terror. You see, he is not about "working" with anyone. It's all about everyone doing his bidding. Working with others is not in his vocabulary. As mayor he stood before the Rotary Club for the State of the City address and stated that one of our City Councilmembers was not one of "his" people because she voted against him. It'll be the same with the commission. If he becomes Chairman, woe be to he or she that opposes him. Just ask Dan Tennant. Dan and Steve were attached to at the hip right up to the time that Dan voted against Brown. Then he became the "Jack Smith" of Peachtree City. Brown went after Dan publicly at every turn.
It's about the power. Let me say it again....IT'S ABOUT THE POWER !
Watch and learn Major. You can already see it. The "big 3" didn't elect him Chairman and he hasn't let up his attack yet. It'll be the "big 3" vs. Brown and McCarty, as long as McCarty does EVERYTHING Brown says. And, it'll probably work. Brown will get some lackeys in and be Chairman, then will do what he did in PTC. Preside over a 22% tax increase, embroil the county in multiple lawsuits, negotiate privately with big developers like he did with Wieland Homes, insult and alienate all surrounding communities, make stupid demands on state officials, write letters of support to the airport manage after a major contamination of our water source with de-icing fluid, violate ethics laws because his ego will make him, allow our county infrastructure to deteriorate, chase away business causing a loss of jobs and tax revenue, and many other things.

Don't bother believing me, the proof is in the Citizen archives and will resurface soon enough. 4 years Brown will lose re-election by a HUGE margin just as he lost in PTC. Then he'll paint his daughters room, bad mouth the one who defeats him, and be a driving force in getting someone like Don Haddix elected (yeah, Haddix was Brown's pick).

How's that sit in YOUR rice bowl?

Robert W. Morgan's picture

I can see it happening now. He has 3 chances to cultivate an anti-incumbent candidate who will fall under his spell (like McCarty) and all he needs is support of 1 of the 3 to get elected chairman. Then the antics will really begin. A visit to DOT (remember that one?) to tell them how to build roads and of course he'll get into a feud with Steele and maybe even Haddix. Ramsey and Chance won't have anything to do with him and all of Fayette County will cringe when someone from Atlanta asks them who is that clown you all elected. That actually happened to me several times during Brown's reign in PTC.

Major Mike and many others are going to have an smelly and unpleasant foreign object in their rice bowls.

Economic development opportunities will be good for PTC though. The state officials who brought Sany in will shy away from Brown and Fayetteville and PTC's new economic guy - you know, the one without a budget, will benefit.

The huge loss in 4 years is guaranteed. Maybe Haddix (who will by then be ex-mayor) or Steele will replace him. Maybe Logsdon, maybe Dunn will come back, probably lots of new faces will run. It will be interesting to see if can draw more than 6 opponents (an all-time record) at re-election time.

Live free or die!

birdman's picture

You are right on. Scary thing is that when Brownie was mayor he actually prevented business from locating here do to all his infighting, and cheered the loss of Photo Circuits and their multi-hundred jobs. I fear he may do the same for the county. Is Sany a done deal or can they still back out because of problems Brown will cause?
I do remember the whole DOT thing. In fact word was that the widening of Hwy 54 was lowered in the priority list because then "citizen" Brown annoyed the DOT too much.
He HATES Ramsey because Ramsey dared to defeat him for State Rep. Just as he HATED Kathy Cox because she wouldn't put forward the 1% special sales tax for the Avenue that Brown wanted. Don't know how he feels about Chance.
Yup....huge voter turnout in 4 years. Question is, can we survive? At least we don't have him running things yet. Hate to support the "big 3," but they may be the only thing keeping us from getting totally hosed by King Steve. I guess as they say "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." Hopefully someone who is not a Brown lackey (like McCarty) will win.
I do sorta wonder, is McCarty a real person? Is he actually alive? We never hear from him, and only hear about him when King Steve needs to share a little credit. King Steve rails against the big 3 but rarely only casually mentions McCarty. Does he even have an opinion? Would be nice to hear from him, and not just "well Steve told me to vote his way," but "here is my reasoning and opinion."

Hang on, here we go.

Councilman McCarty doesn't seem to want to talk to the Citizen much, but he was a featured player in the Atlanta Journal Constitution two weeks ago when he came out against Sunday liquor sales....because, he said, Fayette county was very conservative and very conservative people don't like alcohol being sold in their county.

birdman's picture

at least we know he's alive. Maybe he will be the moral standard to King Steve's ethical standard. Now that would be a pair.

The East Bypass had been determined the #1 priority. According to an AJC article appearing in the METRO section on February 26, Chairman Frady, himself, decided to shift the funds from the East to the West Bypass. The initial determination that the East should come first had been made by city and county representatives in a Fayette transportation meeting years ago. There is no record that the West Bypass was ever given a specific priority number by vote or committee action. As the #1 priority, the county should have done all in its power to complete the East Bypass first before one man decided to shift the funding to the West.

At the time that happened, there had already been many negative articles and public comments about the West Bypass. 2 years later, still no positive articles or comments in favor of it.

BTW, the same article chides Frady for attempting to intimidate the audience into not applauding those who expressed comments.

So all Brown is really saying is not to change horses in the middle of the stream. Items are priorized for a reason. Frady has too much power.

hutch866's picture

OK, I've got it now, the ARC is ok as long as it benefits you, never mind that this bypass doesn't help anyone, and ends in the middle of nowhere. Never mind that this is as useless as the west bypass, it helps your cause so lets go ahead with it. I have to love the consistency here. No, I don't think Steve is any different then the other three, and unfortunately, you don't seem to be either.

I yam what I yam

NUK_1's picture

.....I guess that's OK though.

There are a lot of lemmings in FC who believe 100% of anything that Steve Brown says without bothering to stop and think if it's accurate or to look at his track record as Mayor of PTC for 4 years. Between the NIMBY's, the sheeple, and the apathetic, the FC commission is composed of exactly the kind of people you would expect.

suggarfoot's picture

"In the process of researching why Fayette County built Rivers Elementary, we discovered that the ARC had predicted the need for and recommended building Rivers. Uh Oh! Wrong!"

They built that school because of the arrogance, ego, stupidity, and connections, of what use to be referred to as the '3 amigos'.

I can't say enough about how lucky we are not to have that power block in power anymore.

Even if it were true that we were gonna get a million zillion trillion extra people, the logical thing to do would be for us to wait til they got here n let them pay part of the cost with taxes right? Nothing they did made sense except for the things I mentioned above.

I really feel in my heart the overcrowding at Birch was self inflicted to show justification for Rivers!!! How do you do that? Well it is real simple, you don't throw the out of county kids out!!!

I had a conversation with someone yesterday that really upset me and only validated what I already knew. Years ago,I argued bitterly with the school rep from my area about the out of county kids. I pointed out that I saw the out of county licence plates on a daily basis and PLENTY OF THEM. I also said the racial makeup did not mimic what lived in the school area.

I was then told those cars were company cars and that I was a racist! Racist, I'm not, but war horse I am! I didn't like that answer at all!

The upsetting conversation yesterday started innocently enough. The person said they were disappointed with living in Fayette county. They have several kids and hoped by moving here they would get a good public education. They use to teach in Fulton county. They stated that a few years ago, when they moved here, they went up to the school, it was either the middle or high, to see their kids. They looked around and saw all these kids that had been going to Fulton county, to their amazement, they were coming up and 'high fiving' this person. What blew him/her away, was that one of these kids was one that he/she had had a personal involvement with the kid being kicked out of Fulton county schools for good...for BRINGING A GUN TO SCHOOL.

This person pointed it out to the principle and the kid was thrown out I'm sure. But this should have never happened. No one is checking this out, or they are doing a pizzz poor job of it.

These are the same schools my kid went to. In fact I lost my kid for a yr between middle school and high school partly because of what was going on there. Mine told me they had taken it in middle school but wasn't going to take it in high school, (abuse) and went to live with their father who I don't consider a good influence. I got them back a yr later, but when the graduated, they didn't want a ring, nor yearbook, and didn't want to do the graduation deal. I had to beg them to 'walk' just for me.

It is my own personal feeling that a lot of out of county kids have been allowed in to show over crowding to justify Rivers and other pet projects.

All the bitterness I've tried to overcome by campaning for new members came back front and center. It is a travesty that people like myself, and the good person I talked to yesterday, move here hoping for a chance for our children, only to be slapped in the face with the wishes and selfserving interest of others. The taxes we pay here are OUTRAGOUS... and me and the person I'm describing, deserved better. I'm bitter all over again, just like that conversation of years ago, was held yesterday. In a way it was!

Someone PLEASE check on these out of county kids! GET THEM OUT!!!

mudcat's picture

Or at least she is the one responsible for letting the illegals into Fayette County schools. Don't know if you ever talked to her or Sam Sweat about this problem, but don't expect too much action from them. I have tried and tried and have now given up. It is like talking to Prezbo or even Bush !! about illegals from Mexico. Deaf, dumb and blind.

suggarfoot's picture

I think it was the member I had a conversation with years ago. The employees do what they are told. I think all of our complaints were stoping right there. My child is out of the schools now. But I urge anyone that feels there are out of county kids to complain directly to Marion Key, Dr Todd, and Dr Tolbert. Forget who's district you are in. Go to the people who will do you some good. Don't be a lone voice that gets pushed to the side.

Robert W. Morgan's picture

Yes she was an employee but was looking the other way because the leadership was so blind to the problem. I think it was the racial component of the problem that made the leadership gun shy. Maybe it is time to turn up the heat since we have a new super and some new school board members.

For those who don't think it is a problem, it is $8,000 per student per year that the out-of-county illegals are stealing from us. Grand theft. Theft of services. Theft by conversion. False swearing (if they actually filled out the forms - that's where Arlene Law fits into this). Felonies. And if you think there are any fewer than couple of hundred of these illegals in our school system, you're delusional.

BTW, before the witch hunt begins, remember that children of teachers and other schools system employees are legally allowed to attend our schools, so don't be throwing them under the bus

Live free or die!

suggarfoot's picture

so I have no dog in the fight anymore. I will help anyone, but I won't lead the charge. The next generation will have to look into this themselves. I have, however, given them a very good blueprint. Don't back down, go to the 3 on the board who are sincere, care, and love our children. They will take it up with the right people.

While it may be true that ..some.. of the out of county kids are employee's, I doubt very seriously that they drive around front, sit in line to put their kids out, then drive to the employees area and park.

If it quacks like a duck, it ..IS.. a duck, please don't let anyone try to baffle you with the BS, nor try to talk over you. You pay taxes, a lot of them. Look for others and form a group. You are not alone. It is your taxes, your schools, and more importantly, your kids.

When I found out this week that a child that was permanently kicked out of Fulton schools for bring a gun to school had been attending the same school as my kid, very likely at the same time I was kicking up a stink about out of county kids was disgusting!!! I get mad all over again just thinking about it.

And people wondered why I bashed the 3 amigos so badly! Well let there be no misunderstanding, it was because they put their wishes and pet projects in front of my dream. My dream was a good school with good kids, not the hoodlums who had been thrown out of Fulton county.

I can't wait till the BOE member from my area runs for re election. It is gonna be a hoe down!

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